Lambeau Field has been a no-go zone for Washington since 1986. That’s the streak the Commanders will try to break in a high-glare Thursday night slot, fresh off a clean Week 1 win and walking into a place where Green Bay has owned this matchup for decades. It’s a strong early-season measuring stick for two teams with playoff ambitions and a lot to prove after statement openers.
Oddsmakers opened Green Bay as a field-goal favorite at home, with most books hovering between Packers -3 and -3.5. The total sits in the 48.5 to 49.5 range, the second-highest number on the Week 2 board. Moneylines have Green Bay roughly -175 to -185 and Washington around +145 to +155. In simple terms, the market is pricing a tight game but giving the nod to the home team, which mirrors how these teams looked in Week 1 and how this series has gone at Lambeau.
Washington handled the Giants 21-6 to start 1-0, and the scoreboard looked as comfortable as it sounds. Three touchdowns in four red-zone trips is what any coach asks for on a short week ahead. Jayden Daniels kept the offense calm and on schedule, showing the same poise that’s turned heads since he hit the league. Tom Brady’s praise for his fearless approach got plenty of run over the summer, and Daniels has mostly delivered on that hype so far.
Green Bay’s 27-13 win over Detroit came with more fireworks. Jordan Love pushed the ball with confidence, the run-pass mix kept Detroit honest, and the Packers’ offense looked like it picked up right where it left off late last season. Against a divisional rival no less. If that’s the baseline, the NFC has another heavyweight to worry about.
History tilts toward Green Bay. The Packers lead the all-time series 22-17-1 and have taken six straight at home against Washington. The Commanders did win the most recent meeting in 2023, but that came on their terms, not on the Lambeau tundra. Add in that both teams reached the postseason last year—Washington at 12-5 with a run to the NFC title game, Green Bay at 11-6 before bowing out on Wild Card weekend—and you’ve got a matchup that feels bigger than Week 2.
Odds, context and what really matters
The spread and total reflect two things: respect for Green Bay’s home edge and belief that both offenses can score. Washington’s Week 1 margin, though, came with a caveat. The Giants moved the ball but stalled in the red zone and settled for kicks. If even two of those trips turn into touchdowns, we’re probably looking at a one-score game and a very different box score. That matters when you’re trying to figure out how repeatable the Commanders’ dominance was.
On the other side, Green Bay is a clear step up in class from New York’s offense. Advanced metrics agree. The Packers’ early-down success and explosive rate projects better than what Washington just saw. That doesn’t mean the Commanders’ defense isn’t real—it absolutely controlled the Giants—but this is a different level of stress, especially on the road in noise.
Daniels’ profile as an underdog is encouraging but still forming: 4-3-1 against the spread as a dog so far in his career. The traits jump off the screen—calm under pressure, quick decisions, willing to run when lanes open—but Lambeau on a short week is a different test. Crowd noise can shrink your playbook. It forces more silent counts, more quick-game throws, and fewer hard counts to steal free plays. That usually helps the pass rush and makes sustaining long drives harder.
That pass rush could be the swing point. Green Bay overhauled its defense and added star power, with Micah Parsons headlining the new-look group. He changes protection plans by himself. If the Packers win enough on the edges, it could push Washington into second-and-long and third-and-long, where even cool-headed rookies start to press.
Washington’s counter is balance. The Commanders punched in three red-zone touchdowns because they stayed ahead of the chains and kept the menu wide. They mixed runs, quick rhythm throws, and Daniels’ legs to force the defense to defend all 11. The test now is whether they can do it against a faster, deeper front that tackles well and closes windows quickly.
Green Bay’s offense should stress different parts of Washington’s defense than New York did. The Packers stretch the field horizontally, not just vertically. Motion, play-action, and layered routes put linebackers and safeties in tough spots. If Love continues to process quickly and takes the layups when Washington drops into zone, the Packers can live in positive down-and-distance and keep the chains moving.
Situational football will decide this. Third downs, red-zone trips, and turnovers. Washington cashed red-zone chances last week; Green Bay created them in bunches. On a short week, teams tend to lean on what they do best rather than installing a bunch of new wrinkles. That usually favors the cleaner offense and the defense that can create negative plays without blitzing.
Trends worth noting:
- Green Bay is favored by 3 to 3.5 at most books; moneyline ranges -175 to -185.
- The total of 48.5 to 49.5 is the second-highest on the slate, signaling expectations of points.
- Washington hasn’t won at Lambeau since 1986 and has dropped six straight there.
- Jayden Daniels is 4-3-1 ATS as an underdog early in his career.
Weather can always become a subplot in Green Bay, but early September usually isn’t the problem month. Still, a stiff breeze or rain would nudge the total downward and tilt the game toward the better run and screen team. Keep an eye on the forecast and the final injury reports Wednesday afternoon, when statuses become clear and late line moves often follow.
Speaking of injuries, both teams came out of Week 1 without any widely reported major setbacks. On a short week, even minor dings matter. Limited practice time means players managing soft-tissue issues or sore ankles might be snap-count risks, especially if the game tilts one way late. The travel piece leans Green Bay: Washington is flying in on a short week, which compresses recovery and prep.
Matchups, betting lens and a grounded prediction
Washington offense vs. Green Bay defense: If the Commanders can keep Daniels clean on early downs, they can lean into RPOs, quick game, and selective deep shots. The red-zone efficiency from Week 1 won’t carry over automatically, but their variety near the goal line—quarterback runs, tight end leaks, and power looks—translates. The wild card is Parsons and a front that can wreck drives before they start.
Green Bay offense vs. Washington defense: The Packers’ tempo and spacing can force Washington into lighter boxes and soft spots in the intermediate windows. If Love keeps the ball out on time and takes what’s free, the chains will move. The Commanders need a handful of splash plays—sacks, batted balls, a tipped pick—to flip field position and get off the field.
Hidden yards: Special teams in September can swing a game. Coverage units aren’t always in midseason form, and one long return or a shanked punt can hand over a short field. In a spread range of -3/-3.5, that single swing matters.
What the market is saying: A spread at 3 or 3.5 is basically the market saying these teams are close on a neutral field, with home field doing the heavy lifting. The total near 49 backs the idea both offenses can find the end zone. If you believe Washington’s Week 1 margin was more about New York’s red-zone failures than their own dominance, you probably lean Green Bay. If you think Daniels’ poise and legs travel, you’ve got a case for the dog.
Small-sample caution: One week of data is noisy. Washington’s defense looked great, but the Giants helped. Green Bay looked explosive, but Detroit missed a couple of chances to get off the field. The best read is to weigh the known edges—home field, pass rush, quarterback comfort—over the one-week box scores.
Game script to watch: If Green Bay grabs an early lead, Washington will need Daniels to throw in obvious passing spots against a hot pass rush. That’s where sacks and strip-sacks live. If Washington lands first and turns this into a 20-17 grind into the fourth quarter, their option looks and ball control can keep Love on the sideline and shrink possessions.
Player angles without the guesswork: Daniels’ rushing threat tends to rise in big spots, especially if edge pressure gets home. Love is comfortable moving the launch point and throwing on the run. Both teams have multiple pass-catchers who can win on slants and crossers, which will be key if corners play off and try to keep a lid on explosives.
Coaching and details: Short weeks reward teams that tackle well and communicate on defense. They punish teams that commit penalties and miss assignments. Silent counts, motion checks, and red-zone discipline will be the quiet deciders here.
Prediction: Packers 28, Commanders 22. That supports Green Bay to cover the 3.5 and nudges the game over most posted totals. It lines up with the early expert lean and what the market has signaled since Sunday night: the better offense at home, with a pass rush that can tilt two or three drives, is usually the right side.
How to watch: Kickoff is Thursday, September 11, 2025, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. The game streams on Amazon Prime Video with additional coverage available on Twitch and local over-the-air stations in each market. Fans can also stream through NFL+ and regional platforms like Fubo where available. Expect a loud, fast start and very little patience from either sideline.
Put it all together and you get what prime-time should be this early in the season: a true test of where each team really is. If Washington’s young core can handle the moment, the streak at Lambeau gets a scare. If Green Bay’s balanced attack and revamped defense show up again, the home fans go home happy and the NFC takes note.
For those tracking the numbers, the market has planted its flag: Packers by a field goal plus a hook, plenty of points, and a night where one turnover or one blown coverage could swing the whole thing. The latest chapter of Commanders vs Packers should deliver the kind of back-and-forth that makes Thursday nights worth circling.
